Task 5 No 2 - Contemporary technology responses – Personal Decision Making tools

I have done another post for the last week because I have just realized Task 5 in the course outline has changed.  I am going to keep my original post for marking consideration because I gained some useful learning in taking part in the case study and completing the blog.

The new Task 5 required us to read two articles “Managers and their not-so rational decisions” and “Managing Overconfidence” and we were asked to discuss the two most interesting things we learnt and ways in which we could look to reduce over-confidence in decision making at our workplace.

The Russo and Schoemaker (1992) article highlighted ‘hindsight’ as a cause of overconfidence.  Specially, that in hindsight “the world is more predictable than it really is”. This is a dangerous assumption as it fails to appreciate how much uncertainty existed at the time or the whole context of how the decision was made.  On reflection, I have been guilty of this process as I have often questioned how ‘I could have been so stupid’ when making a decision, often assuming my capacity for decision making was the same as my current situation.  This is supported by the article that states, “hindsight instils an illusion of omniscience”.

The Certo et al. article discussed ‘escalation of commitment’ as a component of overconfidence and the reason why so many managers “remain committed to a course of action despite the mounting evidence that the action is not paying off”.  I presently work at an organisation were we have some long standing services that are reliant on extra funding to operate.  Some of them have not been fully evaluated in a period of time and we seem to have lost site of why we are actually providing them.  As a new senior manager, I have been asked to provide a briefing to our CEO as the feasibility of continuing these services and in a number of cases the prime reason for their existence now seems to be “it would cost us to close them” and “we are expected to deliver them by the sector”. 

To reduce the influence of hindsight affecting future decisions, I will suggest we utilise a hierarchical diagram such as a ‘fault tree’.  This would provide a tool that would minimise the ‘lens of overconfidence’ that hindsight could produce and allow us to list all the possible challenges that could affect future problems and be more objective.  If further investigation was called for, I would utilise a tool such as ‘scenario analysis’ which provides detail of how the future may unfold, allowing a better understanding of uncertainty.

Counterargumentation could also be introduced to reduce overconfidence with both the ‘hindsight’ and ‘escalation of commitment’ issues.  This year I will be introducing a ‘counter argument’ section to the yearly reports.  This will ask managers to argue to both extend and cease services that they manage.  To provide more gravitas to this exercise, I will also ask them to refer to both their previous budget performance and their proposed budget forecasts.  These will be presented and discussed at the WA Leadership forum that falls a month before the end of financial year.

In considering this blog, I also referred to the following resources that I found useful in gaining a better understanding of managing overconfidence and prospect theory.

http://catalog.flatworldknowledge.com/bookhub/3?e=bauer-ch11_s02

http://blog.tnsemployeeinsights.com/escalation-of-commitment-and-organizational-commitment/

http://billyaustindillon.hubpages.com/hub/Escalation-of-Commitment

http://www.psychologicalscience.org/index.php/news/releases/i-knew-it-all-along-didnt-i-understanding-hindsight-bias.html

And lastly, I keep popping in this quote from the Russo and Schoemaker (1992) article at work because it makes a lot of sense and makes me look smart J

“Experience is inevitable; learning is not”

Great place to finish I think.

Task 5: Contemporary technology responses - Personal Decision Making Tools

This week’s focus was on big data, a subject I am learning a lot more about since joining a new organisation were I am required to use a number of databases that hold information about different streams of service delivery including employment services, early learning centers and community programs. I regularly draw reports from these systems and also check data “dash boards” on a daily basis to monitor expenditure and outcomes.  We also have a database that links all the other service databases, as well as customer/ stakeholder feedback and program analysis. This provides managers with information about budget, staffing, program quality etc. across the whole organization and can be used for reporting on overall performance and planning for the organizations future projects. 

I was therefore very interested in Viaene and Van Den Bunder (2011) article The Secrets to Managing Business Analytics Projects as I am a manager who needs to work with other managers from different fields within the organization to help me set up systems for capturing and utilizing big data for future programs.  The article presented a number of qualities that successful project managers have shown when coordinating analytics projects.  I was heartened to see I have some of the qualities like a ‘delivery bias towards execution’ a characteristic that often frustrates some of my team who want time to consider implementation strategies.

Other desirable characteristics included valuing continual learning; working to gain commitment; intelligently experimenting; and promoting the use of information technology.  One of the most important pieces of learning I took from the readings and lectures was the need for partnerships between operations and IT.  This is a key point especially for the not for profit sector, as many operations staff are social science specialists and have limited understanding of ways of utilizing information technology or collecting and using statistics.  Also, both operations and IT staff have little contact with each other especially when developing and implementing new community services.  I have already started to act on this piece of learning by discussing with our IT Manager how her staff can assist me when considering how new services will fit and operate within our existing structures and how to produce and capture the information I will be required to provide to internal upper management and external funders.

This week’s class focused on utilizing the learning’s from the lectures and readings by applying them to a case study set in the retail sector.  To prepare for this class I did some research and found these three sites very useful in discussing how ‘big data’ is changing the way retailers approach their business and the specific ways they are utilizing the data.

http://www.economistinsights.com/sites/default/files/The_Data_Storm_Web_1.pdf

http://www.deloitte.com/view/en_US/us/Services/additional-services/deloitte-analytics-service/358a7e1b566a2310VgnVCM1000001a56f

http://www.zdnet.com/five-big-data-trends-revolutionizing-retail-7000019510/

I already knew a bit about customer profiling and how retailers were using big data to enhance loyalty programs.  These readings also provided further interesting insights in how retailers are using data gained from a number of selling ‘channels’ to capture customers across all points of sale.  Data is also being used to develop systems that source raw materials across the world at the cheapest prices.  With a huge amount of information pouring into these ‘data warehouses’, cheapest options are changing as little as every ten minutes and the system also allows for forecasting and planning purchasing.  Data analytics are also being used to detect fraud and shrink margins in a challenging retail environment.

I brought this knowledge to class and was able to present it to my working group when we were addressing the case study questions.  I really enjoyed this class, as it was useful to share ideas about ways to approach the case study challenge.  It was interesting to see how others approached the questions.  My group took quite a ‘macro’ approach and looked at how data analytics could be introduced across a whole organization.  When we changed groups, I learnt others had focused on specific retail examples and addressed the questions this way.  Through discussion, I have gained a better understanding of the challenges of introducing data analytic systems to an organization, the key points for me being:

• ·           They are expensive and require specific infrastructure and expertise.
• ·           They need buy in from all managers throughout the organization.
• ·      Different levels of the organization will have different focuses ie the CEO will want data to achieve different things than an IT Manager.
• ·      You need to be flexible and change to the needs of the organization and individual stakeholders.

In conclusion, this was an enjoyable class because everyone took part and we worked together to address the questions and consider the challenges facing organizations that wish to utilize data analytics and carry out big data projects.

Task 4 : Methodologies and tools for solving complex problems

For this weeks blog I have addressed an issue at work by selecting a number of techniques that have been presented in the last couple of week’s lectures. 

Presently, one of the programs I manage is not reaching its goals and expectations set by the funding body and I recently attended a review meeting were a number of issues were raised and some short term objectives have been set to improve performance quickly.

One specific objective is the quality of the Individual Performance Plans (IPP), which workers develop with clients.  These should be more detailed and specifically link to the services that are being provided to the client.

I organised a meeting to discuss strategies for improving IPPs and invited the Area Manager, Program Manger and three Program Coordinators.  Before the meeting, I sent the staff this link :

http://leadership.fuller.edu/Leadership/Resources/Part_4-Leading_for_Transformative_Change/III__Constructing_a_Holding_Environment.aspx

I asked them to read it and think about how the ideas could be used to support our staff and improve our learning culture.  The article, from Fuller Theological Seminary, discusses the ideas of Ronald Heifetz (2009) in regards to constructing a “holding environment” that is "uncomfortable enough that a person cannot avoid the problem, but safe enough that a person can experiment with new ways of doing things”.  One of my leadership goals is to develop a team culture that supports and motivates staff to creatively approach challenges and share their successes. 

In setting up the meeting I considered Jurgen Habermas’s (1971) work relating to developing a “ideal speech situation”.  I made sure I booked the meeting room for a couple of hours, organised refreshments and asked our PA to take messages for all the managers in the meeting so it was a mobile phone free zone.  I started the meeting by setting up ‘group rules’ for the discussion that encouraged the group to:

• ·      Speak and share ideas no matter how left field,
• ·      Question anything that is said,
• ·      Provide context about why they have suggested something,
• ·      to try and not influence others through coercion.

I also advised everyone that I would be utilising a dialogue mapping tool as presented by the CogNexus Institute as this would allow us to record the ideas and see how they link to each other.  As I was utilising a data projector so everyone could see the map, it would allow us agree on the content and reduce mistakes.   The meeting lasted for an hour and a snapshot of part of the map is below:

The process worked very well for us.  As it was a shared display, everyone became engaged and focused in presenting ideas, questions, and comments to support or challenge assertions.  Our discussion kept to logical streams and all the ideas suggested where recorded with further discussions linked to these ideas in a logical manner.   The finished map clearly showed ‘open issues’ and ‘action items’ for future follow up.  Practically, it was a really useful record of what we discussed which captured the thinking process of the group, which we could give to other managers and staff who did not attend the meeting. 

The dialogue-mapping tool is definitely something I will use again, even though my inputting and Power Point skills often did not keep up with the ideas that were flying around the room.